BOOKS COOKED: Why the poll showing Hillary with a 12-point lead is no good.


We saw A LOT of this type of game playing with the polls during the 2012 election where Democrats were oversampled a lot and giving the impression that Romney just wasn’t catching Obama. Of course, we know how that all ended up. One has to wonder how much this type of perception creation helps or hinders getting out the vote for candidates.

Nobody has ever accused British press of having a conservative bias, but there were predictions based on pollling that the conservatives might very well lose the election of 2015, only to go on and win big.

The very next year with Brexit polls showed that Britain was going to remain in the EU, and we all know how that went.

So polls should pretty much never be taken at face value, and the latest showing Hillary with a double digit lead over Trump is the latest example of why.

Often times the weighting in these polls is based on what they think actual election turnout is going to look like. This election may have a very different look as the typical battle lines aren’t really being drawn here.

Last week, ABC and the Washington Post released somewhat of a stunner political poll with the following headline:

Clinton Surges on Trump Missteps; Two-Thirds See Him as Biased

The poll also included the following graphic:

hillary-trump-poll

Trump supporters were understandably concerned as the polling results were then repeated over and over again via the Mainstream Media as a portrayal of a collapsing Trump campaign and a surging Clinton campaign was quickly formed.

But was any of it true?

NO.

Hidden within the polling data itself was this stunning bit of information:

“Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect, for the full sample, and 4 points for registered voters. Partisan divisions are 36-24-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents”

The poll had a +12 Democrat sample over Republicans polled – a figure that aligns perfectly with the +12 lead the poll declared Hillary Clinton suddenly had over Donald Trump.

Imagine that.

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